Gold and Silver Plunge

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  • March 1, 2025

As of January 24, the spot price of gold hovered around 2754, following a recent policy shift by the newly installed U.Sgovernment which saw interest rates loweredThis monetary easing exerted downward pressure on the U.Sdollar, causing investors to pay careful attention to the resulting implications of such financial strategiesFurthermore, crude oil prices experienced a slight decline, trading around 74.27 USD per barrelThis fluctuation in oil prices is underscored by previous discussions at the World Economic Forum, where calls for Saudi Arabia and OPEC to reduce oil costs were madeThe uncertainty surrounding tariffs and energy policies proposed by the United States added layers of complexity to global economic growth and energy demand, contributing to the downward trend in oil prices.

The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that traders are almost certain (at 99.5%) that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rates following their upcoming meeting on January 28-29. This uncertainty regarding the new administration’s economic policies has prompted a surge in investments towards gold and other safe-haven assets, allowing market participants to hedge against volatility.

Energy security senior researcher Clay Seigle from the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that “calls for lower oil prices will naturally be welcomed by consumers and businesses; however, the U.S

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oil industry and global suppliers are somewhat cautious regarding these changes.” He further elaborated that while there is a widespread call for increased investment in global oil and gas projects, falling oil prices might raise concerns about the economic viability of new venturesRecent reports from the U.SEnergy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that, despite a slowdown in refinery activities, U.Scrude oil inventories have dropped to their lowest level since March 2022. However, this decline was less than what analysts had anticipated, indicating a cautious approach among energy stakeholdersEven as distillate stocks decreased, gasoline inventories saw a rise, which complicates the market's recovery trajectory.

Focusing on gold market activities, on January 24, gold opened around 2756, showing some initial fluctuations during the Asian session before slipping during the European trading hours

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Upon opening in the U.Smarket, gold tested a low of 2736 before rebounding to a daily high of 2759, forming a hammer-shaped candle indicative of indecision in the marketAnalysis of the daily trend indicated that the Bollinger Bands were still opening upwards, suggesting potential upward momentumAdditionally, the 5 and 10-day moving averages revealed a diverging upward trend, while the MACD histogram displayed increasing momentumThe KDJ indicator confirmed this trend with a bullish crossover, suggesting an overall bias towards a recovery from recent lowsFor day trading strategies, focusing on higher resistance levels and anticipating potential pullbacks could prove beneficial.

Traders in the gold market may consider various strategiesThe recommended approach for short positions could be to initiate trades around 2758 to 2760 with a stop-loss at 6.5 USD, targeting levels down to 2748, 2730, and eventually reaching 2700. Conversely, if the price approaches the 2772 to 2774 mark, short positions could once again be considered with a similar stop-loss level, targeting 2760 and potentially 2740 as subsequent levels of support

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On the other hand, for potential long positions, traders should look for opportunities around 2702 to 2704 with a stop-loss at 6.5 USD, aiming to reach levels up to 2718 and 2730.

Moving onto the silver market, the price opened at approximately 30.76, reflecting near-term resistance around the highs of the dayThroughout the Asian and European sessions, silver prices gradually fell, and after a brief recovery during the U.Strading hours, the price reached a new low near 30 before closing slightly higher, resulting in a small bearish candle on the daily chartAttention directed toward the daily Bollinger Bands suggested a flattening tendency, with prices oscillating between the upper and middle bandsBoth MA5 and MA10 moving averages showed signs of consolidation, and though the MACD histogram displayed a reduction in momentum, the KDJ indicator confirmed a bullish crossoverIn general terms, traders may expect further volatility with anticipation for potential retracements in both directions.

In terms of trading suggestions for silver, traders may look to initiate short positions around 30.57 to 30.68 with a stop-loss set at 30.85, targeting declines towards 30, 29.52, and 29. For additional short opportunities, any tests around the 31.24 to 31.38 range could also be analyzed with a stop-loss of 31.57, aiming for targets of 30.72 and 30.12. Conversely, buying opportunities could present themselves near the 29.23 to 29.35 range, with a protective stop-loss at 29, targeting potential gains up to 29.95 and 30.68.

Addressing crude oil market movements, oil initially priced around 75.4. Similar to silver, oil faced multiday fluctuations, showing both rebounds and steep declines

By the end of the day, prices had dropped to around 74.2 after reaching a high of 76—signifying a critical resistance levelThe daily chart revealed a squeezing of the Bollinger Bands, with prices continuing to drop from elevated levelsBoth moving averages indicated downward momentumHowever, with the MACD histogram tapering off, there remained indications of potential recovery as the price wanedIn the short term, traders weighed in on entry points, looking for a possible supportive bounce from this recent low.

In terms of strategic trading suggestions in the crude oil sector, potential long positions could be initiated near 73.8 to 74, with a targeted look at 75.6, 76.7, and ultimately 78. For those looking to capitalize on immediate buying opportunities, buyers may also consider testing positions near 73 or 73.2, targeting similar resistance levelsLastly, a possible short position could be taken should prices test the 78 to 78.2 zone, with a tight exit strategy at 79 and targets set lower at 77 or 76.

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